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Welcome to the Energy Analysis Search Publications page. Hundreds of Energy Analysis related publications can be found in this repository. To get started, begin filtering the results below by using the quick filters located on the Search Publications Landing Page or search within filtered results by using the search box below. 

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Analysis Focus: Market Analysis

Approaches to Developing a Cradle-to-Grave Life Cycle Analysis of Conventional Petroleum Fuels Produced in the U.S. with an Outlook to 2040

Date: 10/7/2015
Contact: Timothy J. Skone, P.E.

The U.S. crude consumption mix has changed dramatically since the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) first performed a comprehensive LCA of petroleum derived fuels (NETL, 2008). According to the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook, domestic production will account for nearly 60% of U.S. crude consumption by 2015 (EIA, 2015). This study examines the life cycle GHG footprint of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel projected to 2040. The results of this analysis encompass a cradle-to-grave inventory of GHG emissions by utilizing open-source models (Oil Production Greenhouse gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE) and Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM)) paired with Monte Carlo simulation to account for changes to crude extraction, transport and refining as well as forecast uncertainty from the EIA Annual Energy Outlook (El-Houjeiri et al, 2013; Abella & Bergerson, 2012). Study results are documented in a forthcoming peer reviewed journal article.

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Process Modeling Design Parameters

Date: 4/25/2014
Contact: William Summers

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) conducts systems analysis studies that require a large number of inputs, from ambient conditions to parameters for Aspen Plus (Aspen) process blocks.  The sheer number of assumptions required makes it impractical to document all of them in each issued report.  The purpose of this section of the Quality Guidelines is to document the assumptions most commonly used in systems analysis studies and the basis for those assumptions.

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies

Date: 2/12/2014
Contact: Timothy Grant

The purpose of this guideline is to provide an estimate of the cost of CO2 transport and storage (T&S) in a deep saline aquifer for the plant locations in the four geologic basins where coal is soured and used in the energy system studies sponsored by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL).

Perspective on the U.S. Coal Industry 2014

Date: 12/20/2013
Contact: Chris Nichols

This presentation provides an overview of the coal industry, focusing on the United States, but within a global context. Areas covered include coal prices, consumption, production, imports, exports, reserves, productivity measures, and more.

Perspective on the U.S. Coal Industry 2013

Date: 9/30/2013
Contact: Chris Nichols

This presentation provides an overview of the coal industry, focusing on the United States, but within a global context. Areas covered include coal prices, consumption, production, imports, exports, reserves, productivity measures, and more. Juxtapositions between the U.S. and other countries' coal industries are provided. In addition to providing a current snapshot of the U.S. coal industry, this work portrays both historical and projected aspects of the coal industry.

Assessment of the Distributed Generation Market Potential for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Date: 9/29/2013
Contact: Charles Zelek

NETL analyzed the strengths of the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system in conjunction with distributed generation (DG) market segments in the U.S. and determined that natural gas compressor stations, grid strengthening, and data centers were potential early market-entry opportunities. These three DG market segments are projected to demand two gigawatts of additional power between now and 2018 and 25 GWs through 2040. This analysis shows that the DG SOFC system becomes cost competitive with other fossil-fuel based DG technologies after 25 MWe of installed capacity, around 2025. The SOFC DG application validates and enables utility scale fuel cell systems with carbon capture, and forms an essential first phase of the NETL technology development roadmap.

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity, Revision 2a, September 2013

Date: 9/1/2013
Contact: Timothy Fout

Objective is to establish baseline performance and cost estimates for today’s fossil energy plants, it is necessary to look at the current state of technology. Such a baseline can be used to benchmark the progress of the Fossil Energy RD&D portfolio. This study provides an accurate, independent assessment of the cost and performance for Pulverized Coal (PC) Combustion, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles (IGCC), and Natural Gas Combined Cycles (NGCC), all with and without carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration assuming that the plants use technology available today.

Current and Future Technologies for Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plants

Date: 6/1/2013
Contact: Walter Shelton

The purpose of this study is to present the cost and performance of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants using state-of-the-art (SOA) and advanced gas turbines, both non-capture configurations and with post Adv. Combustion Systems carbon capture based on an advanced solvent process. The NGCC cases included in this study consist of four gas turbine designs: F-frame (GE 7FA.05), H-frame (based on Siemens H), advanced J-frame (based on MHI J), and a conceptual advanced future design (designated as X-frame). Each turbine is modeled in three process configurations: without CO2 capture, with CO2 capture, and with CO2 capture and exhaust gas recycle (EGR).

Power Market Primers

Date: 4/23/2013
Contact: John Brewer

This report is a series of primers on Independent System Operators (ISO) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO). They explore the history, workings, and types of electricity markets comprising the seven regional transmission organizations in the U.S. The primers are accompanied by a Glossary for Power Market Primers in which many of the technical terms used in these primers are defined. The zip file allows interested users the ability to review the entire Power Market report or download individual primers in this series.

Advanced Sensors and Controls - Techno-Economic Analysis for Existing Coal Generating Units

Date: 3/8/2013
Contact: Charles Zelek

NETL collected data from previous coal-fired power plant sensors and controls projects and used this data to establish cost and performance ranges to determine the economic opportunity for future advanced sensors and controls retrofits. Unit-level economic analyses were performed on coal-fired power plants in the U.S. by calculating the net present value (NPV) of cash flows that occur after the installation of new advanced sensors and controls technologies in 2020. The results indicate that all 863 coal-fired units in the U.S. would meet a 24-month payback requirement under the assumption that availability and heat rate would improve consistent with prior sensors and controls projects.

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology

Date: 1/31/2013
Contact: William Summers

The purpose of this section of the Quality Guidelines is to provide a standard basis for scaling costs, with specific emphasis on scaling exponents. The intention of having a standardized document is to provide guidelines for proper procedures to reduce the potential of errors and increase credibility through consistency. This document contains a listing of frequently used pieces of equipment and their corresponding scaling exponent for various plant types, along with their ranges of applicability. This document also details the equations to be used with each exponent.

NEMS-CCUS: A Model and Framework for Comprehensive Assessment of CCUS and Infrastructure

Date: 2/7/2012
Contact: Charles Zelek

This paper presents a recent application of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) funded NEMS-CCUS (National Energy Modeling System - CO2 Capture, Utilization, and Storage) Model which enables the simulation of CO2 pipelines and pipeline networks across the forty-eight contiguous states. The model was used to assess the role of CO2 capture, utilization and storage in both carbon tax and clean energy standard (CES) cases. The paper was presented at the Carbon Management Technology Conference held in Orlando, Florida, USA, February 7–9, 2012.

Evaluating the Impact of R&D and Learning-by-Doing on Fossil Energy Technology Cost Reductions

Date: 2/6/2012
Contact: Charles Zelek

"Evaluating the Impact of R&D and Learning-by-Doing on Fossil Energy Technology Cost Reductions: There Can be No Learning if There is No Doing" Historical data has shown that as new technologies penetrate the market, costs are often reduced with each doubling in capacity because of economies of scale, experience, and other factors typically represented by learning curves. Learning curves are used by many models to forecast future capital costs for energy technologies including carbon capture. Caution should be taken when using learning curves to predict future capital costs because of the wide variation in learning rates and inability to separate the impacts of R&D. It is important to note that while learning-by-doing can bring costs down once a technology deploys, R&D is still necessary for the technology to become cost competitive prior to commercialization.

Potential Impact of Improved Sensors, Controls on Coal-Fired Power Plant Forced Outages

Date: 7/7/2011
Contact: Charles Zelek

An examination of the potential economic impact of improvements in unit availability (reduction in unplanned outages) due to advances in sensors and controls technology.

A Benefits Analysis of the Existing Plants Emissions and Capture (EPEC) Program

Date: 6/28/2011
Contact: Charles Zelek

This paper presents an analysis of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Existing Plants, Emissions, and Capture (EPEC) program. The overall goal of NETL’s EPEC program is to develop carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies that limit the increase in the cost of electricity generation to 35 percent of that generated by an equivalent greenfield plant without CCUS. The analysis was made using NETL’s Carbon Transport and Storage (CTS) model integrated into the Energy Information Administration (EIA) National Energy Modeling Software (NEMS).

Assessment of Macroeconomic Modeling in NEMS

Date: 10/29/2010
Contact: Charles Zelek

Sensitivity studies with the NEMS macroeconomic model are described relative to a perceived lack of sensitivity in climate change and energy security scenarios that depart from business as usual in terms of energy prices. Identified issues include an assumed independence from energy prices for certain exogenous driver variables. A practical scheme for systematic sensitivity studies is described, based upon how the Global Insight macroeconomic model is integrated as an external EVIEWS program in NEMS.