DE-FE0001240

Goal
The primary objectives of this project are to develop analysis and management tools related to Arctic transportation networks (e.g., ice and snow road networks) that are critical to North Slope, Alaska oil and gas development.

Performers
Geo-Watersheds Scientific, Fairbanks, AK 99708
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775
Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415

Background
Oil and gas development on the North Slope is critical to maintaining U.S. energy supplies and is facing a period of new growth to meet the increasing energy needs of the nation. A majority of all exploration and development activities, pipeline maintenance, and other field support projects take place in the middle of winter, when the tundra land surface is stable. The winter operational season has been steadily decreasing over time while the number of exploration companies working on the North Slope has been increasing.

The winter season opens with the start of “tundra travel”, dependent on having six inches of snow on the land surface (coastal plain) and -5°C soil temperatures at a soil depth of 30 cm. Currently there are no methods to forecast this opening date, so field mobilization efforts are dependent on agency personnel visiting field sites to verify that snow and soil temperature conditions meet management criteria. Delays in field verification of tundra conditions and resulting mobilization efforts can reduce the winter operating season by weeks. Exploration and construction activities following the opening of the tundra-travel season do not generally proceed until ice roads and pads are completed—an effort dependent on lake ice and under-ice water. Ice chipping (on grounded lake ice) is a common road construction technique used to build stronger ice roads and reduce their time of construction. At the end of the winter season, projects dependent on ice-road networks often have to cease operations early or risk personnel being caught out on ice-road networks with flooded stream crossings, or unusable sections due to local melt. All of these challenges contribute to high support costs caused by shorter operational seasons (sometimes down to 3–4 months per year) and high uncertainty in the timing of field mobilization.

This project will develop Nowcast/Forecast Tools to help industry and resource management agencies improve winter transportation network operations. The climate modeling methods used to develop these tools are in common use for other applications (i.e., weather forecasting, trucking, and freight industries) but have not been adapted to serve the unique needs of winter oil and gas transportation networks on the North Slope. Techniques resulting from this project will help improve field mobilization efforts and lengthen winter operating seasons. Also, state and federal land managers will be able to respond more efficiently by having real-time access to field conditions. These combined approaches will lead to more effective oil and gas transportation networks, cost savings for both industry and agencies, and improved environmental protection. Cooperating partners in this project include ConocoPhillips Alaska, Bureau of Land Management, Minerals Management Service, National Weather Service, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Alaska University Transportation Center, and Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities.

Impact
The scientific knowledge needed to address the transportation issues for oil and gas development on the Slope exists, but has not been developed into a set of tools useful to industry and management agencies. Optimizing North Slope transportation networks during winter operations will be critical for addressing increasing development pressures, while maintaining a framework for environmentally-sensitive development. Understanding physical conditions is necessary to ensure protection of fisheries and other natural resources on the sensitive tundra landscape. These tools will do more than describe the current conditions, they will provide the ability to forecast physical and environmental conditions so that management agencies can respond to snow cover and soil temperature audits more effectively, and industry can better plan the significant mobilization efforts which take place every winter season.

Accomplishments

• Established project data stations, and collaborated with adjacent environmental network to extend project applications to the foothills region.
• Development of soil-temperature modeling tools will be applied in the 2010/2011 winter season.
• Snow-depth methods report, monthly comparison data, establishment of initial industry training and validation program.
• Addition of new project partner: Alaska University Transportation Center.
• Additional federal and industry support through coordinated field programs in NPR-A, related to future development of production facilities.
• Water-Use Permitting and Management Review with INL—development of adaptive water-management demonstration sites for 2010/2011 winter season.
• Technology transfer through project website: http://www.arctic-transportation.org/ [external site]
• Co-sponsor of “Arctic Ice and Snow Roads 2010 Conference: Advancements and Future Needs”.
  • On-Line Program - http://www.itsalaska.org/Ice2010_Program.html [external site]
  • Petroleum News Review - http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/435701508.shtml [external site]
• Development of a North Slope Water-Users Working Group.
• Completion of Watershed delineations in study areas recommended for adaptive management demonstration applications in the 2010/2011 winter season.
• Completion of initial ice thickness simulation tools.
• Completion of initial soil strength studies and report.

Current Status (October 2011)
The following activities are currently being planned or are ongoing:

• Testing and development of a soil temperature forecast modeling.
• Continuation of soil strength studies.
• Application of geographic information system support tools by GINA for the 2010/2011 winter operations season.
• Winter monitoring and development of test permit approaches for lakes and reservoirs with ConocoPhillips and agencies.
• Completion of “Hydrologic Methods Related to Lake Water Use on the North Slope, Alaska” report.
• Snow measurement methods testing, jointly conducted with Alaska Department of Natural Resources.
• Snow-depth upscaling analysis with previously gathered data, literature values and ongoing data collection is in progress.
• Continued development of Nowcast/Forecast models used with WRF for blowing snow conditions.

Project Start: October 1, 2009
Project End: September 30, 2013

DOE Contribution: $1,412,200
Performer Contribution: $1,763,100

Contact Information:
NETL – Chandra Nautiyal (chandra.nautiyal@netl.doe.gov or 281-494-2488)
Geo-Watersheds Scientific – Michael Lilly (mlilly@gwscientific.com or 907-322-3008)
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