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Download Managing Uncertainty in Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Energy Systems: Two Case Studies
<< Return DOE/NETL-2016/1755

Date: 10/6/2015
Type: Presentation
Status: Active
NETL Contact: Timothy J. Skone, P.E.
Technology Focus Area(s):
Analysis Focus Area(s): Energy Security; Other Energy (non-FE)
Author(s): Timothy J Skone (NETL); Joe Marriott (Booz Allen Hamilton); Greg Cooney (Booz Allen Hamilton)

Product Description
Two case studies are presented that show how Monte Carlo can reduce uncertainty in LCA results. The first case study is based on NETL's upstream natural gas model. Parameterized life cycle models provide flexibility in the specification of uncertainty ranges around parameters. The second case study demonstrates the ways in which too many parameters can confound the interpretation of results when a different question is being asked, namely picking the “better” scenario. The uncertainty can be reduced by identifying the common parameters between scenarios and holding those values constant while Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the remaining parameters. While this negatively affects the absolute values generate by the models, it provides a more direct comparison between the scenarios and allows us to focus on the parameters that differentiate options and identify true opportunities for improvement. This document of study results was presented at the LCA XV Conference in October, 2015