Profile of Resource Adequacy in the MISO Region
Contact: Maria A Hanley
MISO is facing a number of generation resource challenges, ranging from large amounts of retirements, behind schedule retrofit projects, and internal resources committed to exporting power to PJM's capacity market. This report identifies potential issues with generator retirements and retrofits, as well as potential transmission issues, including the impact of imports and exports in a short-term outlook for resource adequacy in the MISO region, including specific concerns with the generation capacity expected to be available in the MISO North and Central regions from 2014 to 2016, as well as additional concerns regarding proposed environmental regulations.
Coal Fleet Transition: Retirement Impacts in the Eastern Interconnection
Contact: Christopher Nichols
This report examines the impact of announced retirements on the mix of available generating capacity, prices, resource availability, and air emissions in the Eastern Interconnection. The report uses a security constrained economic dispatch (SCED) model – Ventyx’s PROMOD IV 11.1 – of the bulk electric system (BES) to model the interconnection.
The Importance of Baseload Power Renewal
Contact: Peter C. Balash, Ph.D.
Issue Paper: Electricity System Adequacy - Challenges Facing the Nuclear Power Industry
One in a series of Issue Papers addressing Electricity System Adequacy, this report focuses on Challenges Facing the Nuclear Power Industry. Early proclamations of a nuclear renaissance yield to predictions of the industry's decline, while proposed carbon regulations offer potential optimism to use nuclear as a clean energy source. Yet, nuclear plants are currently "at-risk" of early retirement (for economic reasons) due to electricity market design issues and competition with low priced natural gas. Concerns are identified as baseload generation shifts from coal and nuclear to increasing natural gas and renewables which may impact on the reliability of the power system.
Making Room for Coal Generation Under the NSPS Rule
Contact: Joel Theis
Making Room for Coal Generation under the NSPS Rule:
Natural Gas and Electric Interdependencies Case Study: Near-Term Infrastructure Needs in PJM
Contact: Justin M. Adder
Low natural gas prices, capacity market uncertainty, and large quantities of coal-fired capacity retirements are leading to a significant growth in PJM Interconnection, LLC (PJM) capacity from natural gas. This report summarizes the information developed for a case study of the PJM Regional Transmission Organization’s (RTO) infrastructure to determine the impact on the system from this shift from coal to natural gas. This report also evaluates the current and forecasted planned-certain capacity mix and the current and forecasted natural gas infrastructure to understand the potential risk areas with the shift from coal to gas.
Issues in Focus: The Role of Natural Gas Storage in Maintaining Reliability on the Electric Power System
As natural gas provides an increasing percentage of the nation’s electric power, the electric power system may become more vulnerable to certain types of reliability risks. Unlike other power generation sources – such as coal or nuclear – gas-fired power plants rely on just-in-time delivery of natural gas. Congestion and outages along the pipelines and/or compressor stations that supply gas-fired electric generating units can cause service interruptions. This Issue in Focus details the role of natural gas storage in maintaining reliability of the electric power system. This analysis is one of a series of Issues in Focus for natural gas/electricity interdependencies.
Contact: Peter C. Balash, PhD
Coal plants have traditionally provided reliable and affordable baseload power generation, and extensive coal retirements are prompting debate on potential grid impacts. This analysis examines how current forecasts may be understating risks: both under-projecting electricity demand growth and expecting an aging fleet to operate at historically high utilization rates. Potential generation and capacity shortfalls due to a timing mismatch between unit retirements and unit additions are discussed. Also reported are operational conditions of retiring units January 2014; actual gas prices compared to projections; and price volatility risks of shifting to gas. View as "slideshow" for best effect
Energy Related Flow Diagrams
Contact: Erik Shuster
This document contains several energy related flow diagrams (Sankey diagrams). For a Sankey diagram, the width of the arrows is proportional to the flow quantity. The following energy related diagrams included in the document are: U.S. energy use, international oil flows, international and domestic coal import/exports, and international natural gas flows.
Power Market Primers
Contact: Maria A. Hanley
This report is a series of primers on Independent System Operators (ISO) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO). They primarily explore the history, workings, and types of electricity markets comprising the seven regional transmission organizations in the U.S. The primers are accompanied by a Glossary for Power Market Primers in which many of the technical terms used in these primers are defined. The zip file allows interested users the ability to review the entire Power Market report or download individual primers in this series.
Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2012: Contributions from Fossil, Nuclear, and Renewable Energy
A diagram of major energy sources for each sector of the U.S. economy depicted as flows in a Sankey diagram. Proportions of fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy provided for electricity generation and ultimately used by the residential, industrial, commercial, and transportation sectors of the economy are shown. This diagram rearranges and segregates information originally published by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, based on data from the Energy Information Administration's Monthly Energy Review, May 2013.
Conventional Generation Asset Management with Renewable Portfolio Standards Using Real Options
Contact: Peter Balash
The transition to a more renewable generation mix under a competitive electricity market will require individual power producers to use sophisticated tools to value conventional generators. Owners will need to understand what market prices signal new investments, temporarily suspending operation, reactivating mothballed generators or permanently abandoning a plant. Net present valuation from a traditional discounted cash flow analysis is limited in capturing the value of generation technologies, and it does not provide an optimal investment criterion. We present and evaluate a closed-form decision support framework using a Spark Spread Real Options approach to value generation assets and to capture optimal market price signals that minimizes financial risks of individual power producers under a transition towards a more renewable energy fleet.
Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2010: Contributions from Fossil, Nuclear, and Renewable Energy
Contact: Ken Kern
A diagram of major energy sources for each sector of the U.S. economy depicted as flows in a Sankey diagram. Proportions of fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy provided for electricity generation and ultimately used by the residential, industrial, commercial, and transportation sectors of the economy are shown. This diagram rearranges and segregates information originally published by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, based on data from the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Review, 2010.
The Role of Coal in a Smart Grid Environment
This report discusses how the traditional role of coal might change in a "Smart Grid” environment. We examine new roles that might leverage the advantages and mitigate the challenges for coal generation. Topics include: i) How baseload demand might change as Smart Grid technologies are adopted, ii) ways that coal might service this changing baseload including centralized generation, distributed generation (DG), and combined heat and power (CHP), and, iii) the potential for coal to provide ancillary services and reserves. A "Smart Grid City of the Future” model is developed to demonstrate operational and economic characteristics of coal generation technologies. The revision involves changing the payback period from four years to six years for the Smart Grid City analysis.
Eliminating the Derate of Carbon Capture Retrofits
Contact: Mike Matuszewski
Retrofitting existing PC plants with amine-based CO2 capture technology is thermally- and power-intensive. This study examines the benefit of installing a natural gas simple cycle to provide the auxiliaries required to operate the amine system such that the original power demand can still be met.
Technical and Economic Analysis of Various Power Generation Resources Coupled with CAES Systems
Contact: Ryan Egidi
Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is an energy storage application with the potential to supplement intermittent power sources, such as wind and solar generators, and to enable better load following for more constant power sources such as coal combustion generators. To better understand CAES’s potential to provide practical energy storage for intermittent and constant-output power sources in the U.S., three practical considerations important to CAES planning and operations were analyzed: 1. Siting decisions 2. Development of optimal charge-discharge strategies 3. Design and operating factors that affect efficiency. These three analyses form the major sections of this study.
Frequency Instability Problems in North American Interconnections
Uniquely correlating the increased number of larger and longer-lasting frequency excursions in North American Interconnections with electricity market design and frequency control regulations, the report connects direct (technical) and indirect (non-technical) causes, both the physics of the problem and the regulatory environment (i.e., regulations, standards, and policies). The physical laws governing the frequency stability phenomenon and system control efforts are responsible for maintaining the nominal system frequency. However, the regulatory environment impacts policy on market design, affecting frequency stability and policies directly affecting frequency control practices. The report covers both technical and policy aspects to improve frequency stability.
Thermal Plant Emissions Due to Intermittent Renewable Power Integration
Answering the question of whether operating one or more natural-gas turbines to firm variable wind or solar power would result in increased Nitrous oxide (NOx) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions compared to full-power steady-state operation of natural-gas turbines, the analysis demonstrates that CO2 emissions reductions are likely to be 75-80% of those presently assumed by policy makers. NOx reduction depends strongly on the type of NOx control and how it is dispatched. For the best system examined, using 20% renewable penetration, the NOx reductions are 30-50% of those expected; in the worst, emissions increased by 2-4 times the expected reductions.
Electric Power System Asset Optimization 2011
This report examines the current state of utility asset optimization within the framework of a vertically integrated utility and presents evidence on why assets are not fully optimized today. It then discusses how Smart Grid processes, technologies, and applications could be leveraged to improve today’s asset management programs enabling a significant improvement in the utilization of both system assets and human resources.
Electric Power System Asset Optimization
This presentation summarizes the finding for the report, Electric Power System Asset Optimization, which investigates asset optimization within the framework of a vertically integrated utility and presents evidence on why assets are not fully optimized today. It then discusses how Smart Grid processes, technologies, and applications could be leveraged to improve today’s asset management programs enabling a significant improvement in the utilization of both system assets and human resources.
Assessment of Future Vehicle Transportation Options and Their Impact on the Electric Grid - Presentation
Contact: Justin Adder
Using critical review of existing literature and independent analyses, NETL summarizes the future of vehicle transportation and its impact on the electric grid. It begins with a discussion of the technology performance characteristics and market potential of key competitors in the vehicle sector, in order to set the stage for the discussion of electric vehicles (EVs), which have the highest potential for short-term market penetration. EVs are also the key transportation technology that will have a significant impact on the electric power grid, making their usage and prevalence important to both electric utilities and load-serving entities and consumers.
Environmental Impacts of Smart Grid
Using critical review of existing literature and independent analyses, NETL summarizes Smart Grid’s impact on the environment and identifies additional research to clarify the complex relationship between Smart Grid, applications enabled by Smart Grid and environmental impact. Major impacts on environmental emissions enabled by Smart Grid include load reduction/shift from demand response and demand side management; electric vehicle charging and electrification of transportation sector; shift in generation mix toward intermittent renewables; shift toward distributed generation located closer to load and improved transmission and distribution operations.
Assessment of Future Vehicle Transportation Options and Their Impact on the Electric Grid - Report
Using critical review of existing literature and independent analyses, NETL summarizes the future of vehicle transportation and its impact on the electric grid. It begins with a discussion of the technology performance characteristics and market potential of key competitors in the vehicle sector, in order to set the stage for the discussion of EVs, which have the highest potential for short-term market penetration. EVs are also the key transportation technology that will have a significant impact on the electric power grid, making their usage and prevalence important to both electric utilities and load-serving entities and consumers.
Environmental Impacts of Smart Grid - Presentation
West Virginia Smart Grid Implementation Plan
Contact: Steve Bossart
Producing the first statewide Smart Grid Implementation Plan in the US, the West Virginia Smart Grid team examined current WV electricity grid conditions and the likely future state required to support the development of a 21st century economy. Progressing through established DOE Smart Grid characteristics and key technology areas, the analysis identified several gaps to address to establish a resilient and reliable energy infrastructure supportive of West Virginia's future economic development. A detailed business case, complete with cost benefit analysis and scenarios, offers solutions in an implementation plan with timeframes to direct specific benefits to consumers, society, and utilities.